Kairo Trade research ·
Token unlocks: price falls earlier than you think
7,149 unlocks of 128 coins over two years: large unlocks push price down in advance, and a short a week before the date won two times out of three.
An unlock is the day a project's team, investors or foundation may sell the next part of their tokens. We went through every one-off unlock of 128 coins from September 2024 to September 2026 — 7,149 events — and compared each coin with the market and with its own behaviour on ordinary days. The conclusion is clear: a large unlock does weigh on price, but the pressure comes early and fades a week or two after the date. Whoever knows the date in advance sees it in time.
Key numbers
The week before
That is how much a coin typically loses against its usual week before a large unlock (5% of supply or more). Two coins out of three behave this way — in both years of data.
Short a week before
Median result of that trade on large unlocks after fees; 69% of trades were profitable. On ordinary days the same trade on the same coins made only +1.5%.
Two weeks around the date
The week before and the week after a large unlock together — worse than usual in 68% of cases. Price bottoms in the first week after the unlock.
Team and investors
Their unlocks weigh the most: in the week before the date, almost three coins out of four do worse than usual. For other recipients — 58%.
The largest unlocks
Of the 15 largest unlocks of the two years, 13 lagged the market in the week before the date.
Small ones don't count
Unlocks below 5% of supply — 99 out of 100 events — leave no visible mark on price. Watch the large ones.
How price behaves around an unlock
The line shows how much worse or better a coin does than its usual self: zero means "as usual", below zero means weaker than usual. It starts 30 days before the unlock and is the median across all large unlocks.
For unlocks of 5% of supply or more, almost everything happens within two weeks: the sharp drop starts about a week before the date, the bottom comes on the seventh day after the unlock at about −6% against normal, and then price slowly comes back.
The largest unlocks, 10% of supply or more, hit earlier and harder: over the month before the date the coin is on average 7% weaker than usual — in three cases out of four — and the bottom comes on the fifth day after, at about −13%. Over the following three weeks, though, such coins win back most of the loss.
Who receives the tokens — and why it matters
Teams and investors got their tokens cheaply, long before listing, and some of them sell at the first opportunity. The market knows it in advance: for team and investor unlocks (5% of supply or more), price does worse than usual in the week before the date in 74% of cases, by 5% on average.
Ecosystem and reward tokens spread gradually across many hands, so their link to price is much weaker. Tokens handed out at a coin's launch are a separate story: listing, not the unlock, drives that price, so such cases were left out of the study.
The pressure does not depend on market mood: ahead of large unlocks, coins lagged both when bitcoin was rising (in 71% of cases) and when it was falling (in 63%).
What would have happened if you traded unlocks
We tested simple trades around large unlocks on history (5% of supply or more, 77 events across 49 coins). Fees and slippage are included at 0.1% per trade; funding is not. Next to each is the same trade on ordinary days of the same coins, which shows how much the unlock itself adds on top of the general decline of altcoins.
- Short 7 days before, close on unlock day
- Median
- +6.8%
- Profitable
- 69%
- Ordinary days
- +1.5%
- Worst
- −50.4%
- Same with a hedge: short the coin, long BTC
- Median
- +6.3%
- Profitable
- 71%
- Ordinary days
- +2.2%
- Worst
- −49.9%
- Hedged short: week before and week after
- Median
- +11.4%
- Profitable
- 71%
- Ordinary days
- +4.4%
- Worst
- −45.4%
- Hedged short, team and investor unlocks only
- Median
- +7.6%
- Profitable
- 75%
- Ordinary days
- +2.4%
- Worst
- −49.9%
| Trade | Median | Profitable | Ordinary days | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Short 7 days before, close on unlock day | +6.8% | 69% | +1.5% | −50.4% |
| Same with a hedge: short the coin, long BTC | +6.3% | 71% | +2.2% | −49.9% |
| Hedged short: week before and week after | +11.4% | 71% | +4.4% | −45.4% |
| Hedged short, team and investor unlocks only | +7.6% | 75% | +2.4% | −49.9% |
Median: half of the trades did better, half worse. "Profitable" is the share of winning trades. The result holds in both years (+7.9% and +5.6% for the hedged trade) and with double fees (+5.9%).
The risk is large and needs to be seen in advance. One short trade in ten lost more than 10%, and the worst lost half: the coin doubled before the unlock. Shorts are kept small and with a stop. Before entering, check funding and open interest: if shorts are already crowded, funding turns negative and holding the position gets expensive.
For buyers the takeaway is simpler: in 6 cases out of 10, buying a coin a week after a large unlock worked out better than buying a week before it.
The 15 largest unlocks of the two years
The largest unlocks by share of supply among coins that were already trading — with no cherry-picking. The figures show how much the coin lagged or beat the market in the week before and the week after the date.
- PYTHMay 19, 2025ecosystem25.5%Week before −10.4%Week after −10.8%
- PYTHMay 19, 2026ecosystem25.5%Week before −13.6%Week after −6.2%
- MEDec 11, 2025team25.2%Week before −7.6%Week after −14.9%
- ONDOJan 18, 2025ecosystem22.4%Week before −2.4%Week after +29.2%
- ONDOJan 18, 2026ecosystem22.4%Week before −3.6%Week after −1.7%
- MEJun 11, 2026team21.2%Week before −12.8%Week after +6.9%
- ACXJun 30, 2025investors20.9%Week before −9.1%Week after +2.0%
- JUPJan 22, 2025airdrop20.2%Week before +17.2%Week after +48.1%
- CLOUDJul 19, 2025team19.8%Week before −19.2%Week after +15.2%
- WETJun 4, 2026team19.3%Week before −6.4%Week after −5.4%
- SPKJun 17, 2026ecosystem18.6%Week before −1.9%Week after −10.0%
- WALMar 28, 2026investors18.2%Week before −5.9%Week after +2.9%
- DBRApr 18, 2025team17.8%Week before −29.4%Week after −20.0%
- JTODec 7, 2024team17.3%Week before −21.2%Week after +28.7%
- SOSOSep 6, 2025ecosystem17.1%Week before +9.3%Week after +2.7%
| Date | Coin | Supply | To whom | Week before | Week after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 19, 2025 | PYTH | 25.5% | ecosystem | −10.4% | −10.8% |
| May 19, 2026 | PYTH | 25.5% | ecosystem | −13.6% | −6.2% |
| Dec 11, 2025 | ME | 25.2% | team | −7.6% | −14.9% |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ONDO | 22.4% | ecosystem | −2.4% | +29.2% |
| Jan 18, 2026 | ONDO | 22.4% | ecosystem | −3.6% | −1.7% |
| Jun 11, 2026 | ME | 21.2% | team | −12.8% | +6.9% |
| Jun 30, 2025 | ACX | 20.9% | investors | −9.1% | +2.0% |
| Jan 22, 2025 | JUP | 20.2% | airdrop | +17.2% | +48.1% |
| Jul 19, 2025 | CLOUD | 19.8% | team | −19.2% | +15.2% |
| Jun 4, 2026 | WET | 19.3% | team | −6.4% | −5.4% |
| Jun 17, 2026 | SPK | 18.6% | ecosystem | −1.9% | −10.0% |
| Mar 28, 2026 | WAL | 18.2% | investors | −5.9% | +2.9% |
| Apr 18, 2025 | DBR | 17.8% | team | −29.4% | −20.0% |
| Dec 7, 2024 | JTO | 17.3% | team | −21.2% | +28.7% |
| Sep 6, 2025 | SOSO | 17.1% | ecosystem | +9.3% | +2.7% |
13 of 15 lagged the market in the week before the unlock. After the date the picture varies: some kept falling, others bounced — which is why the main window for a trader is before the unlock.
How to use this
- Look at the share of supply. A large unlock is 5% of supply or more; from 10%, pressure shows a month ahead. Our calendar shows the share for every unlock.
- Look at who receives. Team and investors are the main risk; ecosystem and rewards weigh less.
- Look at the share of volume. An unlock worth several days of trading in the coin is the hardest for the market to absorb. This share is in the calendar too.
- Mark the dates 2–3 weeks ahead. The main move happens in the last week before the unlock and the first week after. The calendar lists unlocks three months ahead.
- Don't rush to buy before an unlock. It usually pays to wait for the week after the date.
- Short only with a plan. Small size, a stop, and a funding check before entering.
How we measured
Unlock schedules come from DefiLlama's open data: 44,857 events of 355 projects. Prices and volumes come from our own daily candle history. The study covers one-off unlocks of coins that had traded for at least 30 days before the date — 7,149 events of 128 coins from September 2024 to September 2026. Unlocks on the same day are combined; distributions in the first month after a coin's launch are excluded.
Each coin's move was compared with the median of 1,095 cryptocurrencies over the same days and with its own behaviour on days without unlocks. All figures are medians, so a single project with hundreds of unlocks or a single coin that multiplied cannot decide for everyone. We checked robustness by recomputing the result 2,000 times on random sets of coins: the pressure before large unlocks holds in both years, without public sales and airdrops, and with double fees.
Upcoming large unlocks
Unlocks of 5% of supply or more in the next 90 days — a live list from our calendar, dates in UTC. "Of daily volume" is the unlock's value against one day of trading in the coin: 100% is exactly one day of trading.
- UXLINKOct 18, 20267.1%103.7%other, team$39K
- LMTSOct 22, 202611.9%34,677%team$3.4M
- APROct 23, 202616.7%12.4%investors, team, rewards & staking, ecosystem, foundation & treasury$11.2M
- MONNov 24, 202616.8%1,861%team, investors$431.4M
- GRVTNov 29, 20267.4%221.7%other$17.2M
- WETDec 9, 202619.3%141.0%foundation & treasury, team, ecosystem$11.7M
- IRDec 17, 20265.5%6,316%investors, team, foundation & treasury$201K
Frequently asked questions
Does price fall after a token unlock?
A large unlock does weigh on price, but mostly in advance: in the week before the date a coin is on average 4.5% weaker than in its usual week, and the bottom comes in the first week after the unlock. After that, price usually recovers little by little.
Can you make money on unlocks?
History says yes, with risk. A short a week before a large unlock (5% of supply or more), closed on the unlock day, returned a median +6.8% after fees and was profitable in 69% of cases; on ordinary days the same trade made about +1.5%. Still, one trade in ten lost more than 10%, so a stop and a funding check are a must.
What counts as a large unlock?
5% of supply or more. Unlocks below 5% — 99 out of 100 — leave no visible mark on price. From 10%, pressure shows a month before the date.
Whose unlocks weigh the most?
Teams' and investors': in the week before the date, price does worse than usual in 74% of cases. For ecosystem and rewards the link is weaker.
Where can I see upcoming unlocks?
In the Kairo Trade unlock calendar: date, number of tokens and their value, share of supply and of daily volume, and who receives them — for every coin in the screener, 7, 30 or 90 days ahead. Free and without sign-up.
What data is the study based on?
7,149 one-off unlocks of 128 coins from September 2024 to September 2026: DefiLlama schedules and our own price history. Each coin was compared with a market of 1,095 cryptocurrencies and with its behaviour on ordinary days.