Formations: breakouts, retests, bounces — and what happened next

The Formations section answers one question: where has price just done something meaningful. The scanner walks every coin at the close of each bar and stacks findings as cards, newest on top. These are findings, not signals: the algorithm says «there was a breakout here», it never says «buy». What a formation is actually worth is shown in the table below the feed — from facts, not promises.

Eleven kinds of formations

• Level breakout — the bar closed beyond a horizontal level that price had touched at least twice, the previous bar was still on the near side, and the bar's volume is at least one and a half times the median of the last twenty.
• Level retest — the level was broken with volume two to twelve bars ago, price came back to it from the new side, the wick reached the level, and the close held in the far half of the bar.
• Level bounce — the wick landed on an unbroken level with three or more touches, the bar is at least half the usual size, and it closed in the third farthest from the level.
• Structure break — a close above the last swing high or below the last swing low. The card says «continuation» (with the trend) or «change» (against it).
• Density bounce — 5m only: price came right up to a live order-book wall of $100K or more and closed away from it. The card shows the wall size and the exchange.
• Volume impulse — the bar's body is at least two NATR and its volume at least four medians: a move with money behind it.
• Trendline breakout — a close beyond a sloped line drawn through at least three extremes, with volume of one and a half medians or more.
• Trendline bounce — the first touch of an unbroken sloped line: the bar is at least three quarters of NATR, closes in the far third, and the previous bar did not touch the line.
• Range breakout — price sat for at least twelve bars in a box no wider than two NATR and left it with a body of at least half NATR and volume of one and a half medians or more.
• Knife — a long-wick bar: range at least two and a half NATR, one wick at least 60% of the range, close in the opposite 40%, volume at least twice the median. Direction is where price came back to.
• Liquidity sweep — the wick went beyond an unbroken level with two or more touches by more than the tolerance, and the close came back: stops beyond the level were taken, the move did not continue. Direction is away from the poke.

Tolerance comes from volatility, not from the timeframe

A touch means «came closer than a quarter of a usual bar»: the tolerance equals a quarter of the same series' NATR(14), but never less than 0.05% of price. Bitcoin and a meme coin are measured by the same rule with their own ruler. Series with NATR below 0.05% (stablecoins) are not scanned: any wobble around the dollar would look like a breakout.

What we scan and how often

• Timeframes 5m, 15m, 1h and 4h — only at bar close. There is no 1m on purpose: minute breakouts are noise.
• Crypto only, with daily turnover of $2M or more: illiquid pairs draw false levels.
• One finding per coin per bar — the rarest by priority: a breakout outranks a bounce, a bounce outranks an impulse.
• Cooldown: the same formation on the same coin and timeframe appears at most once every six bars.
• Findings are kept for thirty days.

Outcomes: what happened to price

Under every card there are four numbers: «15 min», «1 hour», «4 hours» and «now». Each is the move from the close of the finding's bar, in percent, signed towards the formation: plus means price went where the formation pointed, minus means against it. The later price is taken from real minute candles, not reconstructed from memory. Until the time comes, the cell says «pending».

Filters and the card

• The filters «Kind», «Timeframe» and «Direction» (↑ Up, ↓ Down) are buttons; the choice is remembered in the browser.
• The «With outcome only» button hides findings that do not yet have a 15-minute outcome.
• The mini chart shows thirty bars up to the finding, the level as a dashed line, the finding bar highlighted.
• Below it, the facts: «level», number of touches, «volume ×N», for density — «wall … on …», the venue and the closing price.
• «Open chart» places the formation on the big chart as a drawing — a level, a trendline or a box — on the right timeframe.
• Two sub-tabs: «Feed» with the cards and «Statistics» with the table «What patterns are worth — on the record»; the sub-tab is remembered and opens from a link with ?tab=stats.
• The «Volume» filter keeps coins whose daily turnover is at least the chosen step ($1M … $100M) — so you can skip illiquid names.
• The «Exchanges» filter keeps coins that trade on the selected venues; the small numbered button next to the ticker shows on hover where the coin trades.

The table «What patterns are worth — on the record»

Below the feed there is a statistics table for the last seven days per kind and timeframe: «Found», «Worked in 1h», «Typical move in 1h» and «Worked in 4h». «Worked» is the share of findings after which the price moved in the formation's direction by at least half a typical bar (½ NATR); in brackets — how many already have an answer. «Typical move» is the median one-hour move in the formation's direction: plus — it usually went where the formation pointed, minus — against it. A share of 55% or more is green, 45% or less is red: judge for yourself which formations on which timeframes are worth anything.

Questions and answers