Bitcoin cycles
Mayer Multiple
1.149BTC price: $83K
Price divided by its 200-day average. Historical marks: above 2.4 — overheated, below 0.8 — undervalued. Now 1.149 with price $83K and MA200 $72K.
Pi Cycle Top
0.46MA111 $71K · MA350×2 $155K
The 111-day average against twice the 350-day. Their upward cross caught the 2013, 2017 and 2021 tops within three days. Ratio 0.46: one and above is the historical top signal.
200-week moving average
$66K+24.5%
The historical floor of bear markets: price has rarely settled below it. Now $66K, price is 24.5% above.
Rainbow chart
CheapBTC price: $83K
Fire sale< $50K
Cheap$50K – $99K
Accumulate$99K – $198K
Fair$198K – $394K
Expensive$394K – $787K
Euphoria$787K – $1.6M
Bubble> $1.6M
A log regression over bitcoin's whole history since 2010. Our history is shorter, so the curve uses the original's published coefficients — fitting a regression to a short series would invent a different indicator under the same name.