Bitcoin cycles
Mayer Multiple
1.143BTC price: $79K
Price divided by its 200-day average. Historical marks: above 2.4 — overheated, below 0.8 — undervalued. Now 1.143 with price $79K and MA200 $69K.
Pi Cycle Top
0.412MA111 $68K · MA350×2 $164K
The 111-day average against twice the 350-day. Their upward cross caught the 2013, 2017 and 2021 tops within three days. Ratio 0.412: one and above is the historical top signal.
200-week moving average
$64K+22.9%
The historical floor of bear markets: price has rarely settled below it. Now $64K, price is 22.9% above.
Rainbow chart
CheapBTC price: $79K
Fire sale< $47K
Cheap$47K – $95K
Accumulate$95K – $189K
Fair$189K – $377K
Expensive$377K – $753K
Euphoria$753K – $1.5M
Bubble> $1.5M
A log regression over bitcoin's whole history since 2010. Our history is shorter, so the curve uses the original's published coefficients — fitting a regression to a short series would invent a different indicator under the same name.